Tall-Boy's (Mostly Inaccurate) Picks

Play-In Game
#8 UMBC 78 #9 Stony Brook 58
I saw both of these teams once this year - UMBC when they beat BU in overtime in Baltimore, and Stony Brook when they were destroyed by the nation's #6 team GW. Obviously, UMBC was more impressive, and they've had some good victories, especially over BU and Binghamton. This game will be a good way to warm up for the drinking of the rest of the weekend.

Quarterfinals
#2 Binghamton 67 #7 Maine 59
Maine is a pretty good 7 seed, but Binghamton annihilated them twice during the regular season. Maine's problem is they don't have an imposing offensive force - they have a couple guards who will chuck up some threes, and even make some of them, but their inside presence is lacking.

#3 Boston U 51 #6 Vermont 50
This is going to be a barn-burner no matter who wins. But I'll take the team on a 3-game winning streak over the team who has lost 4 in a row. The inside and hopefully outside attack will be enough for BU to overcome Trimboli by himself.

#8 UMBC 77 #1 Albany 72
Yep, you read it right: Albany is following the lead of the 03-04 Terriers and going down in the first round. As I wrote before, UMBC is capable of the big upset. If their two big guys, Zito and Housman, start feeling it, they're tough to stop. The key for them will be shutting down UA shooters like Jamar WIlson and Jason SIggers. The Danes are going home early in what will amount to a road game for them.

#5 New Hampshire 66 #4 Hartford 60
Hartford lives and dies by the shooting of Aaron Cook. Kenny Adeleke will get his 20 points and 15 rebounds, but the rest of the supporting cast, with the exception of emerging freshman Paris Carter, is extremely suspect. UNH's NCAA-leading free throw shooting will help them win close games that should be won by the opposition.

Semifinals
#3 Boston U 56 #2 Binghamton 53
I realize that BU got stomped a few weeks ago in the same arena by 20+ points. But Dennis Wolff would not let that happen twice in one season, especially to a team that is not much more talented than BU is (if at all). He will learn from the game tape, and put together a defense that will shut down Andre Heard and the rest of the Catbears.

#5 New Hampshire 80 #8 UMBC 45
This is where UMBC's cinderella run ends. They'll be tired after playing their third game in 3 days, and run out of gas against a UNH team that features some athletic players who can hit threes as well as play the post. It's going to be a blowout of epic proportions (there's got to be one in every tournament!)

Finals
#3 Boston U 69 #5 New Hampshire 65
This wouldn't be a basketball blog without a bit of rampant homerism. Yes, it could happen - I think BU is entering the tournament at the right time. They're winning games and finding their offensive stroke, while continuing their trademark defensive dominance. During the season, the home team won both games in blowout fashion, so it'll be interesting to see what happens in a neutral setting. I think BU wins it and heads straight to the play-in game.

This is a more wide-open tournament that any in recent memory, and anything can happen. So this is what I think will happen (and no I haven't started drinking yet).